The debate has been over the number of seats that will change.  I have seen statements from the low forties to low sixties.   Personally, I think it will get in the fifty range, but exact number is hard to pin down.  A lot depends on how big the tidal wave for the Republicans will be.

The Senate is a much different story.  The more liberal leading media and some conservatives claim that the Senate will stay Democrat, but everyone believes that Republicans will make significant gains.  However, there are some more conservative analysts claiming that the Senate could be taken by the Republicans.

The last Rasmussen poll states for the Senate that solid results for Democrat is 48, an for the Republican is 45 while 7 are still to close to call.  If the Republicans can take 6 of these 7, they will control the Senate.

A preview of the toss up Senate races:

West Virginia

I find West Virginia Senate Race is one of the most interesting ones.  A popular Democratic Governor, Joe Manchin in a close race because West Virginia is very Anti-Obama.  West Virginia is a coal state so Cap-n-Trade isn’t popular there.  Manchin has tried to distanced himself from Obama.

Challenger John Raese (R) has ran a tough race, but Manchin currently leads in the polls 49-46.  (+/- 3)  Raese was actually leading the race, but Manchin took the lead in recent weeks.  If Raese manages to win, this could be a sign that the Republican Tidal Wave is going to be huge.

West Virginia is in the Eastern Time Zone so it will be one of the first toss up states for us to know the outcome.  What kind of impact would a Republican win here might have on the elections on the west coast?  Will it make the Democrats more determined to come out to win those states, or discourage them to vote?

Prediction:  Democrat Joe Manchin.   Note: If Raese wins, expect a long night for Democrats.

Pennsylvania

I have seen polls going for both candidates from this state.  Rasmussen has Pat Toomey  (R) leading  Joe Sestak 50-46.

One thing to keep in mind, the Governor’s race here with Republican Tom Corbett has a significant lead over the Democrat Dan Onorato: 52-43.  If the Governor’s race is leaning that way by that kind of margin, you could expect the Republican Senate Candidate to get a bit of a kick of support as well.

Prediction: Republican Pat Toomey

Illinois

Republican Mark Kirk has a four point lead over Democrat Alexi Giannoulias: 46-42.  Kirk has pretty much lead in the polls.  Giannoulias is also being hurt by Green Party Candidate, LeAlan Jones who has 5 points.

Again, there is a Governor’s race here as well.  Republican Bill Brady has a significant lead over Democrat Pat Quinn: 45-37.  Again in theory, this should boast Mark Kirk.

Democrats must be annoyed by Jones who must be stealing votes away from Giannoulias.  However, could potential Green Party voters go Democrat on election day?

However, President Obama and former President Clinton made recent stops in Illinois to energize Democrats to turn out.  Also, the state has a history of being Democratic so that might help Giannoulias.

Prediction: Republican Mark Kirk

Colorado

Republican Ken Buck is leading Democrat Michael Bennett: 48-44.  Bennett did make some ground after some of Buck’s gaffes.  Will this trend continue to election day?

Again, this is another state with a Governor’s race.  Democrat John Hickenlooper is leading (Not Republican but) American Constitution Party Tom Tancredo: 47-42.  The thing to note that Tancredo has made significant gains in recent weeks.  What about the Republican?  Dan Maes (R) has only 5 percent of support.

I don’t see any Governor race coattails here.  If anything, it might be the other way round.

Prediction: Republican Ken Buck

Nevada

One thing about this election, regardless of who wins or loses expect this to be taken to the Nevada Supreme Court with allegations of voter fraud.  This one has been nasty all along, and I think it will finish that way as well.

Currently in the polls, Republican Sharron Angle is leading over Senator Majority Leader Harry Reid: 49-45.  They were neck and neck just a few weeks ago.  I suspect the reason for the Angle bump was the last debate where even liberal leaning commentators said that Reid had a poor outing.

There is a Governor’s race here as well, and has an interesting twist.  Senator Reid’s son, Rory is running for Governor and is getting spanked.  Republican Brian Sandoval is leading Rory Reid (D): 58-35.

You have to think with Senator Reid’s growing NATIONAL unpopularity that Rory Reid would picked a better time to run for Governor.  So Senator Reid can’t expect any Governor Coattail effect.

Prediction: Republican Sharron Angle and to be determined in the courts later.

California

Senator Barbara Boxer (D) has a slight lead over her Republican opponent, Carly Fiorina: 49-46.  This has been a tough race from the start.  Both women have fought hard.

California is also having a Governor’s race.  Since the Governorator is leaving office with an approval rating in the toilet.  I would think that would give a boast to the Democrats.  In the same way that Obama got a boost from Bush’s low ratings.

Currently, former Governor Jerry “The Fossil” Brown (D) is leading Republican Meg Whitman: 49-45.

So both races are too close to call and not sure if there would be a coat tail effect either way.  I will assume that both spots will be taken by the same party.  Also, California historically leans Democrat.

Prediction: Democratic Senator Barbara Boxer will retain her seat.

Washington

Oh my!

This is a tight one!

I have seen polls that go both ways.  However, Rasmussen has Republican Dino Rossi with a slight lead over incumbent Democrat Patty Murray: 48-47.

I think this one falls into how big the Republican Tidal Wave is.  If it looks like the Republicans are slaughtering the Democrats than expect this one to go Republican.  Also, it may be days before an official winner is announced.

There is no Governor’s race that could impact the results either.

According to Rasmussen, “neither candidate has held a lead greater than five points in 15 surveys conducted since January and they’ve been within two points of each other nine times.”

Wow.

Prediction: Lambo has no clue!  Gun to the head prediction?  Since I expect this to be a big night for Republicans and with the anti-incumbent mood…  Dino Rossi.

Conclusion

That has my predictions 5-2 in favor of the Republicans.  Guess what that means?

If I am correct, 50-50 tie in the Senate.

However, I do think I laid out other possible scenarios so it really can go in many directions.  Again, the key…   How big of a Republican Tidal Wave will occur?

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Ragman

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As we all know the $700 Billion economic bailout bill failed to pass the House of Representatives, so the Senate took it’s turn in a similar bill and added $150 Billion worth of pork/earmarks to “sweeten” it. It passes in both the House and Senate and President Bush signed it into law (Public Law 110-343) within hours.

Both presidential candidates voted for the bill.

Here is Senate roll call (number 213, 74-25 passed)

Here is the HR roll call (Roll call 681, 263-171 passed), 58 Reps changed votes from Monday to Today.

There are six versions of the bill (HR 1424), version six actually dealing with the Economic bailout.  You can read all six Here or read the version directly affecting the bailout Here

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Here is our first show.

Show notes:

• Special intro by Ragman
• Topic 1: Gay Marriage, focus on the latest California ruling. How this ruling affects the institution of marriage from view of religion and government.
• Topic 2: Term limit for the House and Senate. Should congress also have similar term limits like the executive branch, i.e. The President.
• Show and site related information by Lambo

Enjoy!

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